First and foremost important stat here is that the NFC 1 seed makes it into the NFC championship a little more than 90% of the time. That means that before we go any further, we better find some pretty convincing evidence to go against Dallas.

Last week I said that generally about 3 out of the 4 favorites win in the wild card round and the Giants turned out to be that other team. So they beat the odds once. Considering that historically the 5 seeds chances of making to the NFC championship game are slim to begin with and coupling that with the 1 seeds odds, it gets bleaker and bleaker for the NYG. Not to mention that they defiantly won their game despite the odds of winning after a loss to New England. The point is the Giants have beaten the odds way too many times already. Still no reason to go on the Giants.

Lets put the odds down for a moment. Can we find a physical advantage for the Giants? I don’t think so. The key question for me here is can the Giants defense slowdown the Dallas offense enough to give New York a chance to win. To me the answer is no. Even if the NYG defense plays well and holds Dallas to 24 I don’t think you are going to get that much out of the Giants offense this week. As Manning goes so goes the offense and while he has strung together a couple good games, he has been historically inconsistent. In fact he was so good last week, that at one point I thought the Giants finally figured out a way to sneak Peyton Manning into his uniform and get away with it. I just cant see it happening this week.

So basically we have …

Odds on the 1 seed Cowboys - Very good
Odds on the 5 seed Giants - Very bad
Odds on the Giants beating the odds 3 times in a row - Almost nonexistent
Odds on slipping Peyton into Eli’s uniform again - None, he has his own game to play

Last thing to do is the algebra. Giants are 7.5 pt dogs and the total is 47 so the people with sand beneath their feet say Dallas 28 Giants 20. I think that needs to be adjusted a little. Dallas 34 Giants 17

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