Just like New England, I think Indianapolis is one of those teams where you throw the odds right out the window. Key points on their 3 losses:

• Tennessee - The second team lost to Tennessee. If it mattered, Manning could have walked on to the field at any time and ended their season
• San Diego - A series of freak occurrences put this loss on them, we will speak of them in more detail later
• New England - If these two teams aren’t scheduled to play each other, we have two undefeated teams this season.

Obviously the most important one to us today is the San Diego game. Remember what happened in that game:

• Manning throws 6 interceptions - which he had NEVER done before, the odds were simply stated, once in a lifetime thing and that was the one time
• Vinateri missed the game winning field goal, you don’t need to know anything about math to know the odds of Mr Clutch choking like that
• San Diego returned a kick for a touchdown. They have one this year and it came in that game.

We don’t have to go into a complex discussion of probabilities here, all of those things are just not going to happen again this weekend. Indy still almost won and on top of things, the game was in San Diego. So like I said, normal conditions Indy beats the pants off both San Diego and Tennessee and is 15-1 (and probably should have been 16-0).

So having established that Indy could just have easily been undefeated and the regular season matchup was a bit of a freak let’s now consider some other things. The game is in Indy. San Diego is a different animal on the road, San Diego has also strung a few together and we have already well discussed the odds of such streaks many times on Newton’s Locker. Its seems like Indy is a lock, but since we are talking about remote possibilities, there is another one here and that’s LT. He himself has a chance to put together a once in a lifetime game (but in a good way) and win almost by himself everytime he walks on the field. But, unless that game is this one, Indy rolls. Last thing to do is the A & A (algebra and adjustment)

San Diego is getting 9 and the point total is 47. That means Indy 28 San Diego 19. That’s pretty good but I think its going to be closer to 2 touchdowns. Indy 31 San Diego 17.

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