You will notice throughout my football picks I refer to “doing the algebra” or “ A & A”. What I am doing is here is finding a starting point for my analysis through a system of equations that is the same for every game regardless of who is in it. You only need to know two numbers that you can most likely find on the web or from your local newspaper. They are the SPREAD and the under/over or what I call the point TOTAL. If you know those two things you can use algebra to figure out the score. Here’s how

Let FAVORITE represent the total points scored by the favorite
Let DOG represent the total points scored by the underdog

Equation 1: TOTAL = DOG + FAVORITE

The favorite should score more points than the underdog and that difference is represented by the SPREAD and thus

Equation 2: FAVORITE = DOG + SPREAD

Now since I know the spread and the total I can find the points the underdog is expected to score by solving equation two for DOG like so

DOG = FAVORITE – SPREAD

And substituting that value into the value for DOG in equation one and getting

TOTAL = DOG + FAVORITE and thus
TOTAL = (FAVORITE – SPREAD) + FAVORITE ie the bolded text in parenthesis is equal to DOG

Now since I know the TOTAL and the SPREAD, they are just numbers read out of the paper, I know how much the favorite is expected to score.

I can now put that number into either equation and find DOG. I usually use equation one so for example suppose we have the Tennessee Titans favored over the New England Patriots by 3 and the point total is 37.

FAVORITE represents the points the Titans will score

DOG represents the points New England will score

SPREAD is 3

TOTAL is 37

So we have

Equation 1 : 37 = DOG + FAVORITE

Equation 2 : FAVORITE = DOG + 3

So

DOG = FAVORITE – 3

And thus

37 = (FAVORITE –3) + FAVORITE

or

40 = 2(FAVORITE)

or

FAVORITE = 20 and thus DOG = 17

So in other words the score is expected to be Titans 20 Patriots 17. Now its clear that the Titans win by 3 and the point total is 37

In plain English, subtract the spread from the total and divide by two, that’s your underdog’s score. Now subtract the underdogs score from the total and that’s your favorites score.

This is where I like to start, from that point on I will look for other factors that I think will affect the outcome and then adjust that score and there you have the phrase Algebra and Adjustment or A & A.

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