January 10th, 2008
Posted by G. W. Newton at 7:15 pm in NFL | No Comments
First and foremost important stat here is that the NFC 1 seed makes it into the NFC championship a little more than 90% of the time. That means that before we go any further, we better find some pretty convincing evidence to go against Dallas.
Last week I said that generally about 3 out of the 4 favorites win in the wild card round and the Giants turned out to be that other team. So they beat the odds once. Considering that historically the 5 seeds chances of making to the NFC championship game are slim to begin with and coupling that with the 1 seeds odds, it gets bleaker and bleaker for the NYG. Not to mention that they defiantly won their game despite the odds of winning after a loss to New England. The point is the Giants have beaten the odds way too many times already. Still no reason to go on the Giants.
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January 10th, 2008
Posted by G. W. Newton at 7:11 pm in Chalk Talk | No Comments
You will notice throughout my football picks I refer to “doing the algebra” or “ A & A”. What I am doing is here is finding a starting point for my analysis through a system of equations that is the same for every game regardless of who is in it. You only need to know two numbers that you can most likely find on the web or from your local newspaper. They are the SPREAD and the under/over or what I call the point TOTAL. If you know those two things you can use algebra to figure out the score. Here’s how
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January 8th, 2008
Posted by G. W. Newton at 9:21 pm in Report Card | No Comments
Results:
I was 4 – 1 straight up, which as was stated when I made my picks, nothing to brag about. However 3 – 1 – 1 against the “expert’s” spread is something to happy about.
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January 5th, 2008
Posted by G. W. Newton at 11:56 am in NCAA | No Comments
Picking the NCAAF National Champion does not come with the safety net I discussed in my articles on picking the winners in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Nope, I only get one shot. No chance for redemption. I am right or I am wrong. However, this year I don’t think its going to be that difficult. Well first things first, lets do our standard algebraic analysis of the experts numbers
LSU is favored by 4 over Ohio State and the point total is expected to be 49. This means that LSU + OSU = 49 and LSU = OSU + 4 then 49 = 2(OSU) + 4 and thus the experts are telling us OSU will score about 22 points. This of course also means LSU will score about 26 so the experts are predicting say LSU 26 OSU 22.
Sure.
You gotta be kiddin me.
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January 5th, 2008
Posted by G. W. Newton at 11:52 am in NFL | No Comments
Experts say that Seattle is favored by 4 over Washington and the point total is expected to be 40. So, again, back to algebra class: Seattle + Washington = 40 and Seattle = Washington + 4 then 40 = 2(Washington) + 4 and thus the experts are telling us Washington will score 18 points. This of course also means Seattle will score 22 so the experts are predicting Seattle 22 Washington 18.
Yeah, I don’t quite see it that way. First up as we are all tired of hearing about, Seattle is a passing team now. Well they should be, they have a playoff (and Super Bowl for that matter) tested quarterback and a coach who helped mold one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. Then of course there is the terrible tragedy in the Washington secondary. Oh and by the way, there is also a former NFL MVP in the backfield, believe me, it’s the playoffs, if he decides he wants to run the ball, Seattle will be able to run the ball.
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January 5th, 2008
Posted by G. W. Newton at 11:45 am in NFL | No Comments
The experts say that Jacksonville is favored by 2 over Pittsburg and the point total is expected to be 39. Let’s crack open those algebra books again: Jax + Pitt = 39 and Jax = Pitt + 2 then 39 = 2(Pitt) + 2 and thus the experts are telling us Pitt will score about 18 points. This of course also means Seattle will score about 21 so the experts are predicting say Jax 21 Steelers 18.
Well, the first blaringly obvious thing is that here is the exception to the rule: the visiting Jaguars are favored and have a better a record than the home Steelers. In this case I don’t think home field will be enough to save the Steelers. This is not the 6 seed Steelers team that won it all 2 years ago. This team has serious injuries to deal with and its leaders from that other team have retired. On the other hand Jacksonville is healthy and strong. They have become the kind of team we are accustomed to watching in Pittsburg. As a football fan, I wish Pittsburgh was healthy and Coach Cowher was still around. It would easily be the game of the weekend, however this will not be the strength vs strength, strength always wins matchup I would like to see. Instead we will see a well balanced Jaguar offense that will pound the running game and move the ball through the air as needed. Wounded Pittsburgh will struggle to move the ball against a stout Jaguar defense and will need to rely on turnovers to score. However, I don’t think we will see that. You aren’t going to get any pick sixes against the Jags. Pittsburgh might hang for a little while, but look for them to wear down late in the game and give up big plays and ultimately just too many points. Jacksonville 41 Pittsburgh 10
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